Economist: Articles on Forecasting and Prediction Markets - Competitive Intelligence2024-03-29T13:08:12Zhttp://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/forum/topics/economist-articles-on?commentId=2036441%3AComment%3A18234&x=1&feed=yes&xn_auth=noForecasting was part of CI wh…tag:competitiveintelligence.ning.com,2009-03-15:2036441:Comment:182342009-03-15T05:10:12.065ZEllen Naylorhttp://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/profile/EllenNaylor
Forecasting was part of CI when I worked at Northwest Airlines many moons ago. It was all numbers and there are pros and cons to that. We didn't have a lot of surprises, and were looking into scenarios both short-term predictable and unpredictable ones. For example, who can predict world events which are devastating to the airline industry like war, airline crashes, hurricanes and terrorism? However, you can apply economic variables to your quarterly and annual numbers--as compared to your…
Forecasting was part of CI when I worked at Northwest Airlines many moons ago. It was all numbers and there are pros and cons to that. We didn't have a lot of surprises, and were looking into scenarios both short-term predictable and unpredictable ones. For example, who can predict world events which are devastating to the airline industry like war, airline crashes, hurricanes and terrorism? However, you can apply economic variables to your quarterly and annual numbers--as compared to your competitors and make some pretty nifty predictions. We also used things like regression analysis, all that stuff you study in MBA school to develop our forecasts.<br />
<br />
The airline industry is very quantitative, and market researchers were frustrated since the qualitative was not respected at that time and I understand it hasn't changed that much. You also need the qualitative in CI. I think one reason why many airlines have poor customer service is their lack of attention to the qualitative.<br />
<br />
Also in response to your remarks about CFOs valuing CI. I think it depends on the company and its culture as to who should be supporting CI. I know at a number of companies that it is finance who pays and budgets for CI. At NWA it was marketing, but we worked closely with scheduling and finance to get our forecasts together. We had to work together to make it work.<br />
<br />
I have had this discussion with others over years, and many don't include forecasting as part of CI, which I think it dangerous! HTH.<br />
<br />
ATB,<br />
<br />
Ellen August, I remember these. Cra…tag:competitiveintelligence.ning.com,2009-03-14:2036441:Comment:181972009-03-14T21:29:56.095ZAndrew Beurschgenshttp://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/profile/AndrewBeurschgens
August, I remember these. Cracking and epitomised everything that CI is on a broader scale and acope than forecasting, one description of an end state, typically based on a linear extension of hoistory's trends. Bring on the sceanrios, August, bring on the scenarios
August, I remember these. Cracking and epitomised everything that CI is on a broader scale and acope than forecasting, one description of an end state, typically based on a linear extension of hoistory's trends. Bring on the sceanrios, August, bring on the scenarios