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UID:2036441:Event:28344
DTSTAMP:20260511T140016Z
SUMMARY:ICI-23 - Decision, Risk and Bayes' Analysis
DESCRIPTION:In order to make ideal decisions, you have to be able to q
 uan­tify the effects of your decisions and your goal criteria!\n\nAmo
 ng the many tasks of CI analysts and managers is support of decision-m
 aking and active involvement in strategic and operative processes. Goo
 d decisions are based on the realistic assessment of uncertainties and
  risks, the identification of one’s own alternatives and ascertainin
 g the effects on one’s own company. For the solution of complex deci
 sion tasks, with numerous, reciprocally influencing decision parameter
 s and non-deterministic consequences, the structured approach of “de
 cision and risk analysis” is of high value in practical experience.\
 n\nForecast on further methods and final discussion\n\nWorkshop foci\n
 Fundamentals of risk- and decision modelling\n\n- What are risks and u
 ncertainties?\n- Monte Carlo simulations\n- Impact diagrams and decisi
 on trees\n- Presentation of results\n- Planning and realization of dec
 ision analysis projects\n\nIntroduction into the fundamentals of proba
 bility theory and statistics\n\n- Probability distributions\n- Convers
 ion of observations and expert evalua­tions into distributions\n- Cor
 relations and conditional dependencies\n\nCase study 1: Risk analysis 
 of a product introduction\n\n- Approaches to problem structuring\n- An
 alysis (Monte Carlo simulation)\n- Interpretation of results (risk pro
 file, sensitiv­ity analyses)\n- Value of further Intelligence\n\nCase
  study 2: Investment decision with and without intelligence\n\n- Appro
 aches to problem structuring\n- Analysis of the decision situation\n- 
 Presentation of results: Optimal decision strat­egy for the given ris
 k preference\n\nForecast on further methods and final discussion\n\n- 
 Open questions and feedback\n\nhttp://www.institute-for-competitive-in
 telligence.com/ici-workshops/ici-23-decision-risk-and-bayes-analysis?u
 tm_source=ICI&utm_medium=Seminarportal&utm_campaign=ning\n\nFor more i
 nformation visit https://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/events/ici23
 -decision-risk-and-bayes
DTSTART:20101027T140000Z
DTEND:20101027T230000Z
CATEGORIES:workshop
LOCATION:Euston House
WEBSITE:http://institute-for-competitive-intelligence.com/arrival/481-
 london.html
URL:http://institute-for-competitive-intelligence.com/arrival/481-lond
 on.html
CONTACT:
ORGANIZER;CN="Rainer Michaeli":https://competitiveintelligence.ning.co
 m/profile/RainerMichaeli
ATTACH;FMTTYPE="image/jpeg":http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/
 file/get/2820264951?profile=original
ATTENDEE;ROLE=REQ-PARTICIPANT;PARTSTAT=ACCEPTED;RSVP=TRUE;CN="Rainer M
 ichaeli":https://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/profile/RainerMichae
 li
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