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DTSTAMP:20260506T165929Z
SUMMARY:New Book Coming in October
DESCRIPTION:Our Fourth Age: A tribal elder's story for young Homines s
 apientes about their future history. [October 1 target publication dat
 e]\nPreface [excerpt]\nForetelling the future is the third oldest prof
 ession behind brewing beer. Why? Because fear of the world has been br
 ed into our bones over the millennia and with good reason. I came to t
 his realization later in life than I should have. I blame it on my upb
 ringing. ....\nI’ve spent over forty years trying to get government 
 officials, corporate officers, and graduate students to confront the f
 uture. The problem is the old saw that managers do things right, while
  leaders do the right things. Hoping that the future will look like th
 e past is a safe easy way to avoid thinking about an uncertain future.
  Because the unknown is scary. Better not to think about it, put your 
 head down, keep doing what you are doing, and hope for the best.\nThis
  isn’t a new problem. 2,600 years ago, Aesop’s ant was warning Gre
 ek grasshoppers about the need to plan for tomorrow. Long-term plannin
 g has always been unsettling. It requires thinking about scary stuff. 
 In my professional experience the only time people think—really thin
 k—about the future is when they are desperate. Which is when it is u
 sually too late.\nThe rate and degree of change are increasing. In 193
 5 the average lifespan of a Fortune 500 company was ninety years. In 2
 016 it was eighteen. Between 1970 and 2015, the average lifespan of al
 l publicly traded companies nearly halved. Half of all countries are s
 hrinking and aging. All of the things that have stood the test of time
  are trembling in the tempest. And yet. Scratch the surface and, under
 neath, we are still hunters with spears stalking a mammoth.\nWhat a bi
 zarre juxtaposition. Are we up for it? Do we have the capacity to cope
  with what is coming? When speaking about the dangers of genetic manip
 ulation, Spencer Wells sounded a cautionary note, expressing concern t
 hat the debate required a “scientifically literate public”.\nWhen 
 it comes to the future of the human race, I don’t think we need a ca
 utionary note. I think we need a cautionary claxon. Preferably a reall
 y big one. Maybe off of a battleship. And that is what this story is a
 bout. In my own small imperfect way I hope to provoke, for my grandchi
 ldrens’ sake, some arguments about where we should go from here.\nBe
 cause the times, they are achanging.\nTerry Vernon Thiele Wilmington, 
 North Carolina\nPHOTOGRAPH: “The oracle bones are pieces of bone or 
 turtle plastron bearing the answers to divination during the late Shan
 g Dynasty (1766-1050 BC). They were heated and cracked, then typically
  inscribed using a bronze pin in what is known as the Oracle Bone Scri
 pt (甲骨文), the earliest known significant corpus of ancient Chine
 se writing.” Xuan Che. Pit of oracle bones (甲骨). July 18, 2008. 
 Anyang Yinxu, China. CC BY 2.0. https://flic.kr/p/7KvwdN.\nyinxu - ora
 cle bones\n\nFor more information visit https://competitiveintelligenc
 e.ning.com/events/new-book-coming-in-october
DTSTART:20211001T050000Z
DTEND:20211002T045900Z
CATEGORIES:book, publication
LOCATION:Amazon
WEBSITE:
URL:
CONTACT:
ORGANIZER;CN="Terry Thiele":https://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/p
 rofile/TerryThiele
ATTACH;FMTTYPE="image/jpeg":
ATTENDEE;ROLE=REQ-PARTICIPANT;PARTSTAT=ACCEPTED;RSVP=TRUE;CN="Terry Th
 iele":https://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/profile/TerryThiele
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