Tactical, Operational & Strategic Analysis of Markets, Competitors & Industries
SHAMELESS BOOK PLUG TO FOLLOW
Dear intelligence colleagues:
After more than a year of writing, editing, and design, I am proud to announce the publication of my latest book entitled How to Predict the Future...and WIN!!!
The book is a first in the field of foresight and intelligence, a study of the twenty-five ways we are most likely to fail when we try to see what's next for competition - and what we can do today to make truly future-focused organizations.
For you intelligence colleagues at NING, here's the inside scoop: After the absurdly predictable financial crisis of 2008, I became pretty incensed when everybody said, "NOBODY COULD SEE IT COMING!!!" followed immediately by, "and of course, since this is a crisis, nobody has time to think about the future." And then, all the same pundits and experts and future-y keynote guys went right back to their business like nothing happened.
For me, it was time to expose all the weaknesses of what passes for foresight in our modern business culture, so we can get to the good stuff - the REAL foresight that time after time produces value for leaders. So my new book is part satire and part in-depth analysis of how bureaucracies avoid critical discussions about their future - and how we can overcome this tendency.
In it, we are guided by WORLD FAMOUS FUTUROLOGICAL PREDICTOLOGIST Dr. P. Hughes Egon, who shows us 25 "sure-fire" ways to "predict the future and win" (while in reaiity, these are traps to avoid):
- Listen to major media exclusively
- Put internal politics above external data
- Underestimate new competition and fringe players
- Plan based on a single scenario
- Let fake numbers trump real insights
- Focus uniquely on positive information; punish those who are negative
- Ridicule, ridicule, ridicule!
- Value the probability of forecasts by the charisma of the person delivering them
- Compare the current moment to the 1980s
- Wait for complete information before concluding, deciding and acting
- Rely on technology and business, ignore culture, society, philosophy
- Say you’re looking out 20 years but study today instead
- Take all of your sources from one country, preferably your own
- Don’t waste time thinking about individuals or small groups
- Take it personally! Make sure your ego is the star of all visions of the future
- Never make comparisons to history! Those jerks didn’t even have computers!
- Don’t invite young people, poor people, artists, or any diverse opinions to the table
- Start with the conclusions in mind, and push all information toward them
- Keep the findings of the study secret – don’t try to make the findings available throughout the organization
- Assume that future generations will share your values, biases, superstitions, and desires
- Confuse sexy with important
- Never suggest the whole model may be changing
- Communicate the future in the most abstract, jargony, ignorable language
- Take it personally when your colleagues don’t immediately believe your view of the future
- Make sure this kind of analysis is a once every decade event
If you want to have a good laugh about what happens when intelligence goes wrong, download a sample introduction and chapter for free. Or, if you're really interested in all 25 tips, the electronic (PDF) version of the book went on sale today.
THANK YOU - THIS CONCLUDES THE SHAMELESS PLUG!
Futurological proctology occurs when futurists have been in the business too long, and forecasts begin emanating from places OTHER than from rigorous data sets.
This is a terrible affliction. I have shown signs in the past.
I must say that this Eric character is surprising me day-by-day...
Bossa musician, sarcastic writer, portuguese brazilian speaker, CI professional with sense of humour...
Maybe he is the one invented... and the other one is the real character. An alter ego confusion!
Very good written. Inteligent and accurate!And I thought only the portuguese could be good professionals with a humouristic vein...
Before accepting Miguel's invitation to come to Portugal, think wisely... you will pay more tax than you will receive from your work. That's the IMF and government solution
Dr. P. Hughes Egon is a 50% resident of Dubai, 50% resident of the Cayman Islands and thus pays no taxes. He also goes to dinner parties with Ben Bernanke and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and they have agreed to make him a tax-free citizen of the planet due to his recent elevation to the status of Tenth Wonder of the Intellectual World, along with Malcolm Gladwell, Jack Canfield, and 50 Cent.
I, on the other hand, am very much beholden to our fine institution, the Internal Revenue Service. Perhaps when I am no longer ghost-writing, this will change.