Future Intelligence Module 6: Scenarios

In the Future Intelligence method, scenarios are the culmination of the prior work of systems mapping, trend and forecast research, and implications. Scenario development is where we draw our line in the sand as futurists, pick a date in the future, and illustrate the world as it could be, with all of its impact on the organization's current strategy.

In no way is this sufficient by itself to elucidate the road ahead for a major organization - the manner in which scenarios are constructed and presented will make all the difference between fantabulist science fiction and a useful managerial tool.

Module 6 will show the professional analyst how to make and use scenarios in a way that improves the chances for success of the entire foresight effort. Topics to be covered are:

* Psychological backdrop of scenarios and narratives
* The dangers of The Official Scenario
* Choosing a number and type of scenarios
* The impact/probability matrix
* Morphological trend-based scenarios
* Introduction to MACTOR analysis
* Backcasting - next steps from preferred scenarios back to action today

An extra half-hour will be allotted for this module to allow for the advanced nature of the material