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Our Murky Crystal Ball - We make predictions even though we are bad at it.

Good food for good thought! Have a nice weekend!

Our Murky Crystal Ball - We make predictions even though we are bad at it.

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/insight-therapy/201102/our-murk...

"Looking at the cascading (and now violent) protests engulfing the Arab states in the Middle East brings several thoughts to mind.

First, I challenge you to find any pundit, expert, talking head, or task force in the last ten years who has predicted that a wave of change in the region would initiate in Tunisia. I challenge you to find a pundit or talking head who can place Tunisia on the map, for that matter.

Given the sheer size of the effort to predict the future, given the resources allotted to the task, and given the breadth and depth of data available, one is continuously struck by our poor track record. Other than recognizing the general inevitability of death and taxes, we are not good at prediction.

(...)"

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