Competitive Intelligence

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Risk Mitigation in EGYPT
http://corporaterisks.info/blog/?p=941


Who will come into power in Egypt?

1. Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei
2. Islamic Brotherhood
3. Military Rule

Out of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining resulting in a gap called perceived relative deprivation.

Socio, political and economic conditions that are will be exploited by vested interests.

Issues belong to certain groups and when these issues are not properly addressed because of government ineptitude or corruption that a certain sect of local population takes it upon themselves as to how these issues should be readdressed. Members of local population who realize that the government is incapable of addressing these issues take it upon themselves to affect the behavior of the local population by offering them utopia.

These issues advocated by groups become demands. Now if demands are properly addressed they result simply in the normal functioning of the political system. As it happens in Egypt, issues which belong to groups which are inadequately addressed become demands which results in heightened perceived relative deprivation because of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining resulting in a gap called perceived relative deprivation.

These issues belonging to groups advocated by influencers become demands and when these demands are not adequately addressed that have the potential for political violence develop legitimacy not in legal terms but on psychological terms result in popular support because of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining.

This results in directed focused political violence.

Islamic Brotherhood insurgents can advocate their causes and win over local population and breaks the links that bind the people to the government. This is because the coercive potential of insurgents is greater and for this the insurgent leaders destroy the legitimacy of the local government and create legitimacy for their own leadership because of the frustration in the local population between that which people think that they have a right to accept and which they estimate they realistically are capable of attaining resulting in a gap called perceived relative deprivation.

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Comment by Vivekk Raghuvanshi on February 10, 2011 at 8:58am
The kind of funding Muslim Brotherhood will get NOW in Egypt from all Middle East countries and other countries around the world is mind boggling.
Comment by Vivekk Raghuvanshi on February 2, 2011 at 7:45am
Omar Suleiman himself or with Omar Suleiman's backing:

Ayman Nour
Mohammad Habib
ElBardei

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