Competitive Intelligence

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How does the current loss of confidence in the markets impact the CI profession?

False predications, the absence of alertness, greed ruling over common sense and finally markets tumbling. The past couple of months have testet not only the integrity of markets and the independence of the financial system (don't even get me started on the rating agencies) but also the confidence in those who are trusted to provide recommendations based on in-depth research and careful analysis - that would be: us (among others).

While apologies are still rare which disappoints me most, the fingerpointing was not slow to emerge. From own observation and motivated to be aware of looming misperception of my own contributions as a CI practitioner I was wondering whether the current crisis impacts anyone's immediate environment.

Does anyone feel confidence declining or CI clients questioning the ability of the various CI functions and deliverables?

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Hi Monica - great to see you here - welcome!

A VERY astute analysis above - the short-range focal point of decision making will, I think quite naturally, begin to relax as the event horizon of those decisions range farther out, but until the firms we work for are feeling more secure about that future, they just need to make it day-to-day.

- Arik
Hello Monica: I think your small sample echoes the findings we have made in survey after survey that show that CI people/groups are nearly always among the first "down-sized" during the front-end of economic downturns or recessions. I have seen this happen in the last 3 "down" cycles, and wouldn't expect it to be much different this go around. The only things I always wonder during these periods is whether the cuts will go deeper than the prior time or not, and where the bottom is?

Having stated that, it always frustrates me that companies let go of those precise groups and professionals (like CI ones) that could, arguably, be of most importance in getting them through the rough times. As you already understand better than many, good CI work can uncover previously unknown or undiscovered opportunities, can help to grow new markets, identify better partners and strengthen networks, defend the company from equally hungry competition, and so on (excuse my use of the cliches -- but they happen to be on target in this case). This always get back to a core issue in our field -- are we viewed to be making recognizable contributions to our organization's top and bottom lines, or are we just viewed to be additional corporate overhead that can easily be excised when we need to improve our short-term financial (read: quarterly) results? Unfortunately for many of our well-meaning and sometimes well-performing colleagues in this field, we have still not achieved that holy grail status of "indispensability" that we truly must achieve. I am hopeful that some of us will get there, and in some of our organizations we will invest in CI during the recessionary periods, but I am also realistic enough to recognize that this likely won't be the norm.

Thanks for your and Jens cogent comments. Will we all (CI pros) fare better this recession? We can if we we are willing to change and learn from the past, while remaining staunchly focused in helping our enterprises make better decisions to compete better for now and the future.
Echoing the fine responses above I strongly believe and actually do experience it in my role at my company which experienced a dramatic downturn for many years now, finally being scooped up by BASF as I type this, that focusing on defensive CI holds the key many decision makers are looking for in a recessive environment that we are experiencing right now.

If your management understands and can be convinced that CI can unveil crucial insights on current bad news in context with your concerns for your own business forecast and help them to avoid deeper slips that could be a start earning trust for the profession right there.

Whereas classical business functions suffer stagnation in both idea generation and implementation right now CI finds a stunning increase in public data and information availability as everyone talks about everything under the sun quite nervously.

As an example (and maybe we all could add some examples right here) the shockwaves in Automotives produce a seldom seen openness in communication of intended counter reaction to the crisis by the auto makers. Just look at the quarterly results presentations by the big three from last week and you find absolute clarity and transparence about their intention to reduce capacity and other impact on the bottom line and the connected industries.

The only things you need is half a weekend, a calculator, some basic internal figures and you can approach your management the very next Monday with accurate predictions where and how your business will feel the heat the coming quarters. Add some spice in form of recommendations – you can even do this regionalized, all the data is there – and you have done a rather simple but very effective CI job.

If your manager does not understand the value of your deliverable ask him his bonus back!

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