Scenario Techniques - Germany

Scenario Planning, Networked Thinking

”Networked Thinking” has proven itself to have great value as an efficient analysis method, able to accomodate complex, unstable market- and competitive developments. It examines the inter-dependencies of all relevant market factors and categorizes them according to importance, active influence and passive interference. This, produces a coherent, complete, understandable and communicable “business model” which can serve as a basis for strategy development, scenario development, early warning or business war gaming.

Scenario techniques play a central and fundamental role among the methods of competitive analysis.

Workshop focus
Overview of long-term prognoses

* Overview of long-term prognoses methods
* Expert-based methods for
* Data acquisition
* Examination of analogies
* Estimating the potential
* Areas of application

Scenario technique:
Developing competing future perspectives

* Identification of factors which influ­ence the future market environment (for this, different methods of approach will be consid­ered)
* Selection of key factors from a pool of influ­encing factors (determining relevance)
* Formation of scenarios through the bundling of key factors
* Selection and preparation of relevant goal sce­narios
* Deduction of implications of the scenarios for the question of outcome (e.g. compilation of prognoses
* Overview of software for scenario techniques

Competitor prognoses through multi-parameter models (War Gaming)

* Basics of networked thinking
* System dynamic analysis
* Overview of commercial simulation software
* Realization of simulation projects
* Modelling of competitive situations
* Case study: strategy development with a War Gaming simulator

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