Scenario Analysis: planning for uncertain futures. Washington DC chapter meeting

Scenario analysis is a powerful tool in the competitive intelligence toolbox. It can overcome two of the most common errors in strategy formulation: over-prediction and under-prediction of change. Building scenarios is an intense process that helps decision-makers move past their own blind spots and prepare for highly uncertain futures.

A scenario is a detailed description of a future state of affairs. While scenarios can be compelling and sometimes amazingly prescient, the most important outcome of a scenario analysis is teaching decision-makers to think, act and engage in ongoing “strategic conversations.” Rather than predicting the future, scenarios work best when they expose and destroy industry mythology and executives’ assumptions that the future will look like the past.

In this briefing August Jackson of Verizon will present a set of scenarios developed to explore the future of the Information and Communications Technology industries, both of which face uncertainties related to the global economy, government regulation and distribution of industry power. The scenarios will have application for industries as diverse as media and government contracting, as they outline the process of building and applying them to your organization and industry.